According to Andrei Starikov, this is exactly what Warsaw is trying to achieve
The situation on the Belarusian-Polish border is getting worse. Migrants who settled in the no-man's land near the Polish cordon run out of water and food. On Wednesday night, two large groups of refugees were able to break into Poland from the territory of Belarus. Some of them came back badly crippled. The parties accuse each other of using physical violence. According to experts, sooner or later there may be a blaze if the first killed appear …
& nbsp; & nbsp; Thousands of migrants are trapped in the neutral zone of the Polish-Belarusian border. At night, the air temperature in the area of the “ Kuznitsa '' checkpoint drops to 1 degree, and by the beginning of next week, a cold snap is expected to minus 6. Migrants are cutting trees and making fires right in the forest in order to somehow warm up. The problem remains with the lack of water and food. Nevertheless & nbsp; people are not going to leave the occupied position. “ We will die, but we will not go anywhere '', & mdash; & nbsp; say migrants to journalists of Grodno & nbsp; Media. & Nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; However, they have nowhere to go. Poland does not intend to let illegal immigrants into its territory, having sent 15 thousand soldiers to defend the border. On the other hand, the Belarusian security forces have built a protective cordon and are operating in the “ not a step back '' regime. How can people get out of this trap & ndash; not clear at all. & nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; Both Belarus and Poland mutually accuse each other of using violence against migrants. The State Border Committee of Belarus reported that four Kurdish migrants with numerous injuries were returned to the spontaneous camp from the Polish side. In the published photographs, one man has deep cuts on his arm and wrist. The second & ndash; the head is broken. According to the Belarusian security officials, these people were able to break into the territory of Poland, but from there they were forced out through the barbed wire back to Belarus. & Nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; This information is confirmed by the Polish military. They said that a large group of migrants at night & nbsp; really & nbsp; was able to enter their territory. Now they are all detained, and some people were returned back. Prior to this, the Poles published a video in which the Belarusian military is carrying a man somewhere on a stretcher. Who is this and what happened to him & ndash; unknown. Shots into the air are heard from the Belarusian side, probably with the aim of intimidating people. & Nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; The situation causes horror among the population of the adjacent Grodno region. “ It is not clear how this story will be resolved if Poland does not accept them. And soon winter will come, and this whole crowd will rush to our houses or dachas. To be honest, it's very scary. There are no fewer flights from these countries, which means that everything will only get worse. The presence of migrants in cities has already become noticeable, '' & mdash; & nbsp; shared concerns with MK. local resident. & nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; Due to the cold weather, some migrants have already made & nbsp; attempts to return from the forest back to the city, but they are being held by the Belarusian military, according to Telegram channels. The border guards allegedly demand that they continue to move towards Poland. A video appeared on the Web: a minibus stopped by the road in the forest, hundreds of people crowded around it, a crush begins. A man in a red jacket throws groceries into the crowd & ndash; a few cakes of bread and, presumably, a bottle of water. There is clearly not enough provisions for everyone. One woman in the crowd becomes ill and faints. & Nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; Horrific videos do not stop other people seeking asylum in the EU. Migrants record a video from Minsk, where they say that they also intend to go to the border. The footage shows a man asking the Polish authorities to let them in, there are small children next to him.
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; About how this situation will develop and ways out of it, “ MK '' spoke with Baltic states specialist, editor-in-chief of Baltnews Andrey Starikov .
& nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; Actually, there is no working way out. Because the exit is in the same plane & ndash; in the dialogue of the Polish authorities with the Belarusian side. The Belarusians do not mind, but the Poles rule out this option. Today Merkel contacted Putin on the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border. Therefore, there may be some kind of mediation and raising the problem to a different level. There are parties to the conflict & mdash; & nbsp; Poland and Belarus. But Poland excludes a dialogue with Minsk. In this case, the problem, since it is already acquiring a pan-European character, can be raised from the Polish level to the EU level. The solution is only in a joint dialogue either Warsaw & mdash; & nbsp; Minsk, or Moscow & mdash; & nbsp; Brussels, or Moscow & mdash; & nbsp; Berlin. Everything here is locked in Poland. Are they ready to listen? The problem is, they are not ready. Already now Poles are behaving too brutally: they spray gas, beat refugees, do not allow them to sleep, turning on the searchlights.
& nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; The situation itself is not a big problem for Poland. Because 10 thousand people & ndash; these are not big numbers at all. For five years, Europe has absorbed about 10 million refugees, so plus or minus 10 thousand & ndash; it is not essential. Moreover, & nbsp; that the refugees themselves, who are on the border strip, say that they are not going to stay in Poland, they want a transit corridor to Germany. & Nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; But the Poles, despite a certain hysteria and emotionality of their behavior, are the beneficiaries of this situation, because the refugee crisis removes the serious conflict between Brussels and Warsaw from the agenda. Let me remind you that Poland is being fined 1 million euros a day for Brussels' rejection of the lack of the rule of law in Poland. Warsaw is in a deep value conflict with Brussels both in terms of abortion, and in terms of freedom of the media, the appointment of members of the public media council and, of course, the Polish legal reform.
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; The refugee situation removes these contradictions, and again the winning cards are on the Polish side, because Poland had no working arguments in this conflict before. Now, taking advantage of this situation, Warsaw has the right to ask Brussels for both money and military assistance, and ask for political support. That is, Poland will not position itself as a troublemaker and a Trojan horse. USA, which brings discord to the home of the European Union, but as a defender of the eastern borders of the EU. Therefore, the Poles skillfully use this situation and assess it not as a flow of refugees, but as a hybrid war, appointing the aggressors in the person of Minsk and Moscow.
& nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; If the situation does not defuse, and this, apparently, is possible only with the mediation of Germany and Moscow, then the Belarusian side will be accused of sabotage. There will be some Belarusian security officials who disguised themselves as migrants. I mean the 'allegedly Belarusian security forces' who 'allegedly changed their clothes' & mdash; & nbsp; Poles will find them. As a result, this will lead to a clash between the forces of Poland and Belarus in the border zone. It will be a military conflict, albeit a local, point and one-off moment. The situation is only getting worse, but the Poles are ready for it.
& nbsp; & nbsp; & nbsp; And the main beneficiary & ndash; ruling party in Poland “ Law and Justice ''. They are the beneficiaries of & nbsp; as in the external dimension: relations with Brussels, the role of the EU defender, the role of the victim of the hybrid war. So in the internal & mdash; & nbsp; in Poland there is traditionally anti-immigrant sentiment, which is now warmed up. For the Polish electorate, they act as defenders from everything alien, and at the same time they beat political opponents – & ndash; Liberal Party Civic Platform. Therefore, the Poles are interested in escalating the conflict, and without an outside hand that will pull them down, the situation can take tragic forms.
& nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; Of course they can. This is help with money and manpower, troops. They can appeal to Clause 5 of the NATO Charter that aggression is being waged against Poland & nbsp; as a NATO member and against the entire military bloc of the alliance. Poland will use the situation to attract political and resource attention to itself. They want the problem to worsen.
& nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; They will not be afraid of any NATO forces. An important element & ndash; Belarus has nothing to do with it. Migrants travel spontaneously. Their names are people who do business on migrants, fellow tribesmen, more successful and successful people who managed to penetrate the EU. It has its own communication environment. Will NATO appear there or will a fence be built & ndash; refugees will not stop arriving. The solution to the problem lies in the political plane and dialogue, but Warsaw is not ready for it. We should expect mediation from Germany or Moscow & nbsp; or the situation will worsen and escalate. & Nbsp;
& nbsp; & mdash; & nbsp; They do not arrive at the initiative of Minsk. Belarus simply does not bother them, plus it provides infrastructure. There are flights, because the EU is banning Belarusian airlines and do not want to fly to Minsk airport. Belavia there was nothing left but to take alternative routes to stay on the market. & nbsp;
& nbsp; & nbsp; The influx of refugees itself is spontaneous. Those who have entered the EU or are in the border zone are calling their fellow tribesmen from the countries of origin to follow their example. There are chat rooms and groups of refugees where people are actively working, let's call them “ migration businessmen '', who provide transportation services. In fact, these are crooks, but people are interested in their services. These are not tourists, travelers, people are fleeing the war and trying to save their lives. European humanism obliges to accept and protect them, but this humanism has gone somewhere. It was, of course, difficult to expect him from the Poles, but the large EU countries do not condemn the inadequate use of force by the Poles and Lithuanians.